Research

Working Papers

PTSD and Refugees’ Underemployment – Evidence from People Displaced from Ukraine
with Mette Foged (University of Copenhagen, Rockwool Foundation), Karen-Inge Karstoft (University of Copenhagen)
RFBerlin Discussion Paper

ABSTRACT

Employment gaps between refugees and natives are well documented, yet the role of trauma-related mental health in shaping these gaps remains underexplored, partly because most data sources lack measures of symptoms early after arrival. We assess probable PTSD shortly after displacement in an entire refugee arrival cohort and link these data to administrative tax records. We find that PTSD symptoms are associated with lower employment probabilities, explaining roughly one-quarter of the refugee-native employment gap one to two years after arrival. This difference is nearly twice as large as the difference attributable to English proficiency and comparable to the difference linked to pre-displacement employment. Among employed refugees, probable PTSD is associated with fewer hours worked per month, though not with lower hourly wages. Our findings underscore the potential of early psychological screening and support as complements to existing labor market integration policies.

How Initial Accommodation Shapes Refugee Integration: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Ukrainian Displacement Crisis in Denmark
with Mette Foged (University of Copenhagen, Rockwool Foundation), Jens Hainmüller (Stanford), Mikkel Stahlschmidt (University of Copenhagen, Rockwool Foundation)
RFBerlin Discussion Paper

ABSTRACT

Sudden displacement crises strain reception systems and require rapid expansion of refugee accommodation beyond conventional channels. We study Denmark’s 2022 reception of Ukrainian refugees and provide the first population-level analysis of two scalable strategies that expanded capacity outside standard public refugee housing: public “pop-up” shelters and private hosting in residents’ homes. Using linked administrative registers covering the full arriving population, combined with a representative refugee survey, we classify each refugee’s initial accommodation from address and co-residence records and track outcomes for 18 months. The majority of arrivals was absorbed in pop-up shelters (37%) and private hosting (43%). Both proved durable, with mean stays of about seven months and no indication that private hosting was less stable. Exploiting quasi-random assignment generated by within-municipality capacity and time constraints, we estimate effects of accommodation type while conditioning on locality, arrival timing, and sociodemographics. Relative to conventional public housing, private hosting led to higher early employment, higher earnings, persistently lower public-transfer receipt, and improved psychological well-being. Pop-up housing performed at least as well on labor-market outcomes and showed modest gains in social integration. By holding locality constant, we show that how refugees are housed within municipalities has an independent, first-order effect on integration—distinct from the well-studied importance of where they are placed. These findings highlight the potential for civic-led accommodation to complement public systems during displacement shocks and shape long-term refugee trajectories.

The Making of a Ghetto: Place-Based Policies, Labeling, and Impacts on Neighborhoods and Individuals
with Jack Melbourne (Bocconi), Sara Signorelli (CREST), Yajna Govind (Copenhagen Business School)

Updated version: RFBerlin Discussion Paper, IZA Discussion Paper

ABSTRACT

Policies targeting disadvantaged areas aim to improve their conditions, but the labels they impose carry consequences of their own. In this paper, we examine Denmark's Ghetto Plan, one of the first recent place-based policies explicitly targeting migrant populations. Under this policy, certain public housing deemed ``problematic'' were officially designated as ``ghettos'', with minimal additional implications. Using rich administrative data and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we show that the policy backfired, worsening spatial inequality through compositional shifts driven by native avoidance. In addition, the policy was particularly detrimental to exposed natives, who accepted a 4% annual income loss to leave stigmatized areas.

Work in Progress

After Autocracy - Tunisia After the Arab Uprisings

ABSTRACT

What happens to the existing balance of political power when autocrats leave? I study the territorial redistribution of political power in Tunisia after the Arab Uprisings, four weeks of mass protests forced the president of 24 years to step down, setting Tunisia off on a transition out of autocracy. Political decentralization was an important part of the new constitution a Constituent Assembly elected in October 2011 started to draft. But municipal elections were not held until May 2018. In these seven years, the central government appointed, and replaced municipal councils by decree. I generate a novel data set on these council appointments from regulative texts and exploit variation across regions and over time to quantify the power struggles that arose between civil society seeking greater autonomy and the state trying to establish larger territorial reach. I find that appointments led to more violent conflict. This conflict was driven by repeated replacements of previously appointed councils. Event studies support the idea that violent conflict was indeed a reaction to council appointments and not vice versa.

Motivations for Female Political Representation - Perceptions and Preferences from Tanzania
with Pablo Selaya (University of Copenhagen), and Sina Smid (Bocconi)

ABSTRACT

Why do people want more women in politics? While women’s numeric representation has increased globally, it remains unclear how the public perceives its connection to substantive policy influence. This paper examines public preferences regarding the relationship between numeric and substantive representation in Tanzania—a pioneer in institutionalized gender quotas. Using original survey data, including survey experiments conducted at the University of Dar es Salaam across three time points (2020–2021), we develop a novel and robust measure of these preferences. Our findings show that support for increased female political representation is primarily driven by a desire for greater substantive representation. Respondents who express this motivation are significantly more likely to perceive that female candidates face higher standards in politics. Moreover, the gap between preferred and perceived levels of representation serves as a meaningful indicator of demand for gender equality, but not with support for Tanzania's current gender quota. We find that respondents generally favor affirmative action policies aimed at equality of opportunity over equality of outcome.

Since the Invation
with Sara Skriver Mundy (University of Copenhagen), Mette Foged (University of Copenhagen, Rockwool Foundation), Karen-Inge Karstoft (University of Copenhagen)

PURPOSE

The purpose is to inform resource allocation coordination in host countries that receives large-scale immigration of war refugees. Specifically, we investigate whether early relative immigration, defined as the time of immigration relative to war onset, is associated with greater access to socio-economic and mental health resources compared to later immigration.

Refugee Assimilation Across Scandinavia
with Jacob Nielsen Arendt (Rockwool Foundation), Bernt Bratsberg (Frisch Center), Mette Foged (University of Copenhagen, Rockwool Foundation), Olle Hammar (Linnaeus University), Giovanni Peri (UC Davis), Oddbjørn Raaum (Frisch Center), Sébastien Willis (Uppsala University)

PURPOSE

Refugee employment has recently reached record high levels in Denmark, with similar improvements in Norway and Sweden. Understanding why this has occurred – and whether it has occurred at the cost of limited language investments - is key to sustain the positive development. We will examine how the size and composition of the arrival cohorts, local labor demand, and national policy reforms contribute to employment trajectories of refugees by comparing Denmark, Sweden and Norway in a unified framework.

Bridging and Dividing
with Vicky Fouka (Stanford), and Alain Schläpfer (Stanford)